India's Carbon Emissions: Rising Amid a Projected Global Decline

14 Nov 2026

Tags: Environment   Climate Change   Adaptation strategies

Source: The Indian Express

Context: According to a new study by the Global Carbon Budget, global fossil fuel-based CO₂ emissions are projected to decline by 0.4% in 2026 compared with 2025.

• India is expected to be the only major emitter to record an increase, with fossil fuel emissions projected to rise by 4.4%.
• China, the U.S., the European Union and Japan are projected to record declines.
• The findings highlight the challenge of balancing India's growing energy demand and industrial expansion with its climate commitments.

Global Trends in Carbon Emissions

• Projected decline: Global fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall by 0.4% in 2026.
• Major contributors: Expansion of solar and wind energy and the energy shock triggered by the West Asia conflict have contributed to the projected decline.
• Temporary nature: Previous geopolitical disruptions, economic crises and the COVID-19 pandemic caused temporary reductions in fossil fuel consumption.
• Structural concern: The study cautions that the current decline may also be temporary rather than evidence of a sustained transition away from fossil fuels.

Why Are India's Carbon Emissions Rising?

• Higher Electricity Demand Due to Climatic Conditions
  • Projected increase: India's fossil fuel emissions are expected to increase by 4.4% in 2026, compared with its average annual growth of 3.5% over the previous decade.
  • Low base effect: Relatively low emissions growth in 2025 was partly due to a wet pre-monsoon period, which reduced demand for cooling.
  • Higher cooling demand: A drier monsoon and higher temperatures in 2026 increased air-conditioning and cooling requirements, raising electricity consumption.
  • El Niño influence: El Niño-related weather conditions added to the pressure on electricity demand.
  • Summer power demand: Persistently high temperatures and deficient rainfall resulted in an unusual surge in electricity consumption.
• Increased Dependence on Coal-Based Electricity
  • Coal power generation: Increased by approximately 13.2% to 846,229.29 million units (MU) between April and November 10, 2026, compared with the corresponding period in 2025.
  • Coal stocks: Higher dependence on coal-based electricity was also reflected in declining coal stocks.
  • Underlying challenge: Renewable energy generation and availability must expand sufficiently to meet peak electricity demand and reduce dependence on coal.
• Rising Transport Fuel Consumption
  • Although overall domestic consumption of petroleum products declined by 2.24% during January–October 2026, transport fuel consumption continued to increase.
  • Petrol: Consumption increased by 6.61%, from 34.85 million tonnes to 37.15 million tonnes.
  • Diesel: Consumption increased by 5.76%, from 76.46 million tonnes to 80.86 million tonnes.
  • Significance: Rising vehicle numbers, mobility requirements and dependence on conventional fuels continue to create challenges for transport-sector decarbonisation.
• Industrial Sector: An Emerging Source of Emissions Growth
  • CREA findings: According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), India's CO₂ emissions increased by 3.7% year-on-year during the first half of 2026.
  • Major contributors: Increased emissions from steel, cement and other industrial sectors contributed to the rise.
  • Power sector stabilisation: CREA's analysis indicates that power-sector contributions to CO₂ emissions remained broadly flat for two years until June 2026.
  • Clean energy contribution: According to CREA analyst Anubha Aggarwal, electricity demand growth over the two years until June 2026 was met by clean energy, halting the rise in coal-based power generation for the first time in half a century.
  • Oil and gas emissions: CO₂ emissions from oil and gas declined by 7% year-on-year despite higher petrol and diesel demand.
  • Industrial decarbonisation challenge: Coal continues to dominate industrial energy consumption, while electricity accounts for a relatively smaller share than in almost any other G20 economy.
  • Need for electrification: Unless steel and other energy-intensive industries shift towards electricity and cleaner energy sources, rising industrial output will continue to increase emissions.

Why Is Industrial Decarbonisation Important?

• Steel industry: Conventional steel production relies heavily on coal-based blast furnaces, resulting in substantial CO₂ emissions.
• Cement industry: Emissions arise from both fossil fuel combustion and the chemical process of converting limestone into clinker.
• Limited electrification: Many industrial processes still depend directly on coal and other fossil fuels rather than electricity.
• Carbon lock-in: Investment in long-lived fossil fuel-based industrial infrastructure can prolong dependence on high-emission technologies.
• Economic growth: India's expanding infrastructure, manufacturing and construction requirements will increase industrial energy demand.

Important Concepts for UPSC

Global Carbon Budget

• An annual scientific assessment of global CO₂ emissions, their sources and the distribution of carbon among the atmosphere, oceans and terrestrial ecosystems.
• Prepared by the Global Carbon Project, an international research initiative.
• Tracks fossil fuel emissions, land-use change emissions and the remaining carbon budget consistent with temperature targets.

El Niño

• A climate phenomenon characterised by abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Forms part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
• Influences global weather patterns, including monsoon rainfall and temperature distribution.
• Can contribute to heatwaves and altered rainfall patterns in India.

Carbon Lock-in: A situation in which investments in long-lasting fossil fuel infrastructure and technologies make future transitions to low-carbon alternatives difficult and expensive.

Industrial Decarbonisation: Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from industrial production through:

• Electrification of industrial processes.
• Renewable energy adoption.
• Green hydrogen and alternative fuels.
• Energy efficiency improvements.
• Low-carbon steel and cement technologies.
• Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS).

Way Forward

• Renewable energy expansion: Accelerate solar and wind energy deployment along with battery storage and pumped hydro storage.
• Industrial electrification: Promote electricity-based industrial processes and reduce direct coal consumption in manufacturing.
• Green steel: Encourage hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) and other low-carbon steel production technologies.
• Green cement: Promote alternative fuels, low-clinker cement and carbon capture technologies.
• Transport decarbonisation: Expand electric mobility, public transport and railway freight to reduce petrol and diesel dependence.
• Demand-side management: Improve energy efficiency in buildings, cooling systems and industrial operations.
• Climate-resilient energy planning: Account for heatwaves, changing monsoon patterns and seasonal fluctuations in electricity demand.
• Just transition: Support workers and regions dependent on coal-based industries while ensuring affordable and reliable energy access.

Conclusion: India's rising emissions despite a projected global decline highlight the growing importance of industrial decarbonisation alongside renewable energy expansion. While clean electricity has helped stabilise power-sector emissions, the next phase of India's energy transition must address coal dependence in steel, cement and other energy-intensive industries without compromising economic growth and energy security.