India-Bangladesh Relations: Balancing Bilateral Ties and Sheikh Hasina's Exile

14 Nov 2026

Tags: International Relations   Neighborhood   Bilateral border relations

Source: The Hindu

Context: Sheikh Hasina, former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, currently living in exile in India, has applied for a new Bangladeshi passport and National Identity Card (NID) through the Bangladesh High Commission in Delhi, triggering speculation about her return to Dhaka.

• She has announced plans to return to Bangladesh in December 2026 to defend her case and rebuild her political party, the Awami League.
• Bangladesh's Foreign Affairs Adviser Humayun Kabir rejected the possibility of issuing her a passport, describing her as a terrorist and indicating that Dhaka would seek her return through the India-Bangladesh extradition agreement.

Background: Sheikh Hasina's Exile and Political Situation

• First exile (1975–1981): Hasina lived in India following the assassination of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and almost every other member of her family in 1975.
• Second exile (2024): She fled to India after widespread student-led protests overthrew her government.
• Crackdown on protesters: A tribunal in Bangladesh convicted her of ordering a crackdown on thousands of students and sentenced her to death.
• Political future: Hasina intends to return to defend herself and revive the Awami League; however, widespread public anger and bipartisan political support for banning the Awami League make her political rehabilitation unlikely.

Political Dilemma of the Bangladesh Government

• Extradition pressure: The BNP government led by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has indicated its intention to seek Hasina's return through the extradition agreement with India, describing it as a prisoner transfer process.
• Execution dilemma: If Hasina is extradited, the government may face pressure to initiate execution proceedings against the 79-year-old former Prime Minister, inviting strong international opposition.
• Political consequences: If the government avoids executing the sentence, its opposition party, Jamaat-e-Islami, may accuse it of protecting Hasina and being soft on the issue.
• Internal security concerns: Her return could trigger protests, political unrest and violence given the prevailing public anger against her.

Impact on India-Bangladesh Relations

• Deteriorating bilateral ties: Relations between New Delhi and Dhaka have declined since Hasina announced her intention to return to Bangladesh.
• Cancellation of diplomatic visit: Hasina criticised Prime Minister Tarique Rahman during a virtual press conference in Delhi on August 5, 2026. India's decision not to prevent the press conference contributed to the abrupt cancellation of the Bangladesh Prime Minister's visit.
• Ganga Water Treaty: The India-Bangladesh Ganga Water Treaty is due to expire in December 2026, and negotiations for its extension have also suffered due to deteriorating relations.
• Diplomatic complications: India cannot physically prevent Hasina from travelling to Bangladesh by air or crossing the land border through Petrapole. However, it cannot completely disengage from her welfare and security after her departure either.

Challenges for India

• Balancing bilateral relations: India must improve ties with the new Bangladeshi government while managing its longstanding association with Hasina.
• Humanitarian responsibility: As a former Prime Minister and an honoured guest in India, her welfare and security remain important considerations.
• Non-interference versus political sensitivities: India must avoid actions that could be perceived as interference in Bangladesh's domestic political affairs.
• Regional stability: Deteriorating relations could affect cooperation in trade, connectivity, water sharing and regional security.

India-Bangladesh Ganga Water Treaty

• Signed: 12 December 1996 between India and Bangladesh.
• Objective: Sharing of Ganga waters at the Farakka Barrage during the lean season (January 1–May 31).
• Duration: 30 years, with provision for renewal by mutual consent.
• Significance: It represents an important framework for transboundary river-water cooperation between the two countries.
• Farakka Barrage: Located in West Bengal, it helps divert Ganga water towards the Bhagirathi-Hooghly river system to maintain navigability and reduce siltation.

India-Bangladesh Extradition Treaty

• Signed: 2013; amended in 2016.
• Objective: Facilitates the extradition of individuals accused or convicted of offences in either country.
• Key provision: Extradition may be refused if the offence is considered political in nature, subject to specified exceptions.
• Amendment (2016): Simplified the extradition process by allowing requests to be supported by an arrest warrant issued by a competent court rather than requiring extensive evidence at the initial stage.
• Relevance: Bangladesh may invoke this treaty to seek Sheikh Hasina's extradition from India.

Way Forward

• Diplomatic engagement: India must intensify dialogue with the BNP government to restore mutual trust and prevent further deterioration in bilateral relations.
• Treaty negotiations: Prioritise negotiations for the renewal of the Ganga Water Treaty to protect long-term water-sharing interests.
• Legal and diplomatic balance: Any extradition request must be examined strictly under the treaty provisions and applicable legal safeguards.
• Humanitarian considerations: India should ensure Hasina's safety and welfare while avoiding unnecessary political confrontation with Bangladesh.
• Neighbourhood First Policy: Maintain constructive engagement with Bangladesh irrespective of changes in its domestic political leadership.

Conclusion: India must adopt a balanced approach that protects its bilateral interests with Bangladesh while ensuring the safety and welfare of Sheikh Hasina. A stable and cooperative relationship with Bangladesh remains essential for India's regional interests and neighbourhood policy.