Context: Successive Conferences of Parties (COPs) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have increasingly branded themselves as 'Implementation COPs'.
- Turkey has termed COP31 the "COP of the Future: The COP of Implementation", following similar claims by Egypt (COP27) and Brazil (COP30).
- The challenge is to move beyond slogans and demonstrate measurable progress through climate action, finance delivery and monitoring of voluntary commitments.
COP31: Institutional Arrangements
- Host and Presidency: Turkey will host COP31, preside over it and lead the non-negotiated Action Agenda.
- Negotiations: Australia will steer the formal climate negotiations following an agreement between the two countries after competing bids to host and preside over COP31.
- Significance: This arrangement separates leadership of the voluntary Action Agenda from formal intergovernmental negotiations.
Changing Nature of Climate COPs
- Earlierfocus: Negotiations primarily addressed what needs to be done and which countries should undertake climate action.
- Current focus: Following adoption of the Paris Agreement and finalisation of its rulebook at COP24 and COP26, discussions increasingly focus on how commitments will be implemented and what progress has been achieved.
- Action Agenda: COP presidencies increasingly use voluntary, non-negotiated initiatives to mobilise governments, businesses, civil society and other non-state actors.
- COP31 voluntary 2035 targets:
- Increase electricity's share of final energy demand to 35%.
- Halve the growth of global waste.
- Reduce energy-use intensity in buildings by at least 25%.
Gap Between Climate Pledges and Actual Implementation
- Evidence of poor delivery: According to an analysis by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), only around 5% of 203 cooperative climate initiatives launched since 2015 have achieved their goals.
- Key concern: Participation in voluntary climate initiatives does not necessarily translate into measurable outcomes.
- Implementation challenge: Climate COPs must move beyond announcing commitments towards monitoring their actual delivery.
Implementation Obligations under the Paris Agreement
- Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): Countries communicate their national climate action plans, including mitigation and adaptation commitments, under the Paris Agreement.
- 2035 NDCs: The new NDCs were due in February 2025, but several countries had not submitted them even as COP31 approached.
- Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs): Countries periodically report progress in implementing their climate commitments, including emissions, mitigation measures and support received.
- Submission deadline: The second BTRs were due by December 31. By late October, only Colombia and Turkey had submitted them.
- Implementation gap: COP31 could conclude before sufficient national progress reports become available for meaningful assessment.
Climate Finance: Central to Implementation
- Importance: Developing countries require climate finance from developed countries to undertake both:
- Adaptation: Managing unavoidable climate impacts such as floods, droughts and rising sea levels.
- Mitigation: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preventing further climate change.
- Competing priorities: Inadequate finance may force developing countries to prioritise either adaptation or mitigation at the expense of the other.
- Vulnerable countries: Small Island Developing States (SIDS), Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and other climate-vulnerable nations depend heavily on financial support for implementing their NDCs.
- North–South disagreement:
- GlobalNorth: Emphasises accountability of developing countries for implementing their NDCs.
- Global South: Argues that developed countries must also be held accountable for their own commitments, particularly climate finance obligations.
- Trust deficit: Lack of transparency regarding climate finance delivery weakens confidence between developed and developing countries.
UNFCCC Mechanisms for Tracking Climate Progress
- NDC Synthesis Report: Consolidates countries' NDCs to assess collective climate ambition and progress towards global climate goals.
- BTR Synthesis Report: Provides an overview of information submitted through Biennial Transparency Reports, helping assess implementation and support.
- National Adaptation Plans (NAPs): Help countries identify medium- and long-term adaptation needs and integrate climate resilience into development planning.
- Ministerial Dialogue on Climate Finance: Provides a platform for discussing climate finance commitments, delivery and implementation challenges.
- Facilitative, Multilateral Consideration of Progress (FMCP): Allows countries to share progress, experiences and concerns regarding implementation of their climate commitments.
- Key limitation: These mechanisms facilitate transparency, dialogue and peer learning but do not directly enforce delivery of commitments.
Three Steps to Make COP31's Implementation Agenda Meaningful
- Timely transparency reporting: Turkey, having submitted its BTR early, should encourage all countries to submit their reports on time and use synthesis findings to guide COP31 discussions.
- Accountability for climate finance: Developed countries should submit biennial communications containing clear figures on climate finance promised and actually delivered.
- Annual progress scorecard: The COP31 Presidency should publish annual reports assessing progress against its voluntary 2035 targets.
- Climate Implementation Bridge: This initiative, intended to convert national climate and adaptation priorities into investable projects, should also be assessed through measurable progress indicators.
Way Forward
- Outcome-based assessment: Measure COP success through actual emission reductions, adaptation outcomes and financial support delivered rather than declarations and pledges.
- Strengthen transparency: Ensure timely submission of NDCs, BTRs and climate finance reports.
- Equitable accountability: Assess developed and developing countries' commitments alongside their respective responsibilities and capacities.
- Bridge the finance gap: Ensure predictable and accessible climate finance so developing countries can pursue mitigation and adaptation simultaneously.
- Monitor voluntary initiatives: Establish measurable indicators, timelines and periodic public reporting for Action Agenda commitments.
Conclusion: COP31 must transform the idea of an 'Implementation COP' into measurable accountability. Transparent reporting, credible climate finance and periodic assessment of voluntary targets are essential to building trust and translating climate commitments into tangible outcomes.
