Context: Months after a controversial election that installed military chief Min Aung Hlaing as Myanmar's civilian President, the military continues its war against anti-coup forces and civilians.
- More than one lakh people are estimated to have died since the 2021 military coup, amid fighting between the junta, anti-coup People's Defence Forces (PDF) and ethnic armed organisations (EAOs).
- The junta has conducted air strikes on villages in rebel-held areas, killing thousands of civilians to suppress resistance.
- International attention has declined due to simultaneous conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Yemen and Iran, allowing the junta to operate with greater impunity.
Growing International Engagement with the Myanmar Junta
- Russia: A principal arms supplier to the junta; supplied fighter jets reportedly used in attacks on civilians.
- China: Initially tacitly allowed three ethnic armed organisations to launch an offensive in Shan and Rakhine States in late 2023, but subsequently pressured two of them into ceasefires and withdrawal from captured territories. It also supported the January election.
- ASEAN: Continues to endorse its Five-Point Consensus, calling for an end to violence and dialogue, but several members are increasingly willing to engage economically with the junta.
- United States: Officials reportedly held secret talks with the junta in Tokyo in June and October, while a senior delegation met Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw in September.
- Japan: Reportedly pressing the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to remove Myanmar from its blacklist.
- Diplomatic outreach: Since becoming President, Min Aung Hlaing has visited India, Thailand, Vietnam and three other ASEAN member-states.
Strategic and Economic Interests Behind Engagement
- China: Seeks access to the Indian Ocean and security for its oil and gas pipelines through Myanmar. It maintains relations with both the junta and powerful ethnic armed groups, including the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), which controls rare-earth- and jade-rich territory, and the United Wa State Army (UWSA), which operates a major tin mine.
- India: Seeks to revive its stalled Act East Policy and connectivity initiatives, particularly the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project.
- United States: Interested in accessing heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium, essential for electric vehicles and advanced weapons systems.
Why Engagement with the Junta is Problematic
- Absence of political legitimacy: The military seized power in the 2021 coup, reversed democratic progress and subsequently conducted a controversial election to legitimise military rule.
- Continuing civil conflict: The junta has failed to end armed resistance and continues military operations against civilians and rebel-held territories.
- Economic instability: Persistent conflict, fragmented territorial control and insecurity undermine the conditions necessary for stable trade and investment.
- Unreliable governance: A regime responsible for widespread violence and the suppression of democratic processes is unlikely to ensure long-term political stability or a predictable business environment.
- Accountability deficit: Failure to hold military leaders accountable for alleged war crimes risks normalising impunity and prolonging the conflict.
Implications for India
- Act East Policy: Political instability in Myanmar threatens India's efforts to strengthen connectivity and economic integration with Southeast Asia.
- Kaladan Project: Conflict threatens the implementation and operational security of this strategically important connectivity project linking India's eastern seaboard with Mizoram through Myanmar.
- Northeast security: Instability in Myanmar can aggravate cross-border security challenges, including insurgency, arms trafficking and refugee movements.
- Strategic balancing: India must balance engagement with Myanmar's military authorities against democratic values, regional stability and its long-term strategic interests.
Important Concepts for UPSC
- Myanmar's Five-Point Consensus: ASEAN's framework adopted in April 2021 to address the Myanmar crisis:
- Immediate cessation of violence.
- Constructive dialogue among all parties.
- Mediation by an ASEAN Special Envoy.
- Humanitarian assistance through ASEAN mechanisms.
- Visit by the ASEAN Special Envoy to meet all concerned parties.
- Act East Policy: Launched in 2014 as an upgrade of the Look East Policy (1991), it aims to strengthen India's economic, strategic and cultural engagement with Southeast Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific.
- Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project: Connects Kolkata Port with Sittwe Port (Myanmar) by sea, Sittwe with Paletwa through the Kaladan River, and Paletwa with Mizoram by road. It provides an alternative connectivity route to India's Northeast.
- Financial Action Task Force (FATF): Intergovernmental body established in 1989 that sets international standards to combat money laundering, terrorist financing and proliferation financing. Its grey and blacklists identify jurisdictions with deficiencies in implementing these standards.
- Rare Earth Elements (REEs): A group of 17 elements, including dysprosium and terbium, used in high-performance permanent magnets, electric vehicles, wind turbines and defence technologies.
