How India Should Respond to the U.S. Green Card Crackdown

14 Oct 2026

Tags: International Relations   Foreign Policies   External policy impacts

Source: The Indian Express

Context: U.S. immigration restrictions: Tighter U.S. immigration policies and uncertainty surrounding permanent residency are affecting Indian professionals, particularly those working in technology and other skilled sectors.

• Impact on Indian IT firms: New H-1B approvals for major Indian IT companies have declined sharply, while firms increasingly rely on local hiring and offshore delivery models.

Impact on Indian IT Companies and Professionals

• Declining H-1B approvals: H-1B approvals for TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL and Cognizant fell to 2,486 in FY2025, from 15,919 in FY2015; their share of initial employment approvals declined from 14% to 2.2%.
• Greater reliance on local hiring: Amazon, Microsoft and Google increased approvals for Indian professionals from 2,860 to 7,060 over the same period, indicating a shift towards hiring skilled workers directly in the U.S.
• Green card uncertainty: Indian professionals face long waits for permanent residency because of country-specific limits and high demand, creating uncertainty about long-term employment and settlement.
• Offshore delivery: Indian IT companies increasingly deliver services from India rather than deploying employees to client locations in the U.S., changing traditional service-delivery models.

H-1B Visa and Green Card: Key Distinction

• H-1B visa: A temporary, employer-sponsored U.S. visa for workers in specialised occupations; it does not automatically confer permanent residency.
• Employment-based green card: Grants lawful permanent resident status, subject to eligibility and applicable immigration procedures.
• Country-based limits: Per-country numerical limits on employment-based immigrant visas contribute to long waiting periods for applicants from high-demand countries such as India.

Economic Consequences for India and the U.S.

• Impact on Indian workers: Visa restrictions and uncertainty can disrupt career progression, reduce employment mobility and encourage skilled professionals to explore alternative destinations.
• Impact on U.S. employers: Restrictions can complicate recruitment and retention of specialised workers, potentially encouraging companies to relocate teams or expand offshore operations.
• Changing investment patterns: Microsoft committed $17.5 billion in investment in India over 2026–29, while Adobe employs more than 8,000 people in India; the article presents such operations as alternatives when U.S. recruitment becomes difficult.
• Potential loss of remittances: India received $118.7 billion in remittances in FY2024, according to the article; reduced overseas employment opportunities could affect future remittance growth.
• Limits of offshore expansion: Offshore hiring does not automatically create equivalent opportunities for Indian graduates because jobs may require different skill sets, experience and specialisations.

Changing Employment Trends in the Indian IT Sector

• Rising unemployment: Unemployment in computer and mathematical occupations in the U.S. increased from 1.9% in 2022 to 3.3% in 2025, reflecting a more difficult labour market.
• Reduced software job postings: Software job postings were reportedly 66% below their 2022 peak, indicating weaker hiring demand.
• Domestic hiring slowdown: Indian IT hiring fell from approximately 445,000 in FY2022 to between 60,000 and 135,000 annually in subsequent years, according to the article.
• Shift in hiring composition: A survey of 651 Indian IT firms found that 65% reported cutting entry-level hiring, while 55% reduced entry-level employment and 42% increased mid-level hiring.
• Graduate employment concerns: Graduate unemployment remained 11.2% in 2025, against 3.1% across all education levels, highlighting the mismatch between graduate supply and available jobs.

How Should India Respond?

• Move up the value chain: Focus on higher-value technology services, research and development (R&D), product engineering, artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced digital solutions instead of depending predominantly on labour-intensive outsourcing.
• Strengthen Global Capability Centres (GCCs): Attract multinational companies to establish high-value operations in India, including research, product development, analytics and strategic functions.
• Improve workforce skills: Expand industry-linked training, reskilling and apprenticeships to address skill mismatches and improve employability among fresh graduates.
• Diversify overseas markets: Reduce dependence on the U.S. by expanding technology services and skilled-worker opportunities in Europe, East Asia, the Middle East and other markets.
• Support affected professionals: Improve career-transition assistance, domestic job matching and opportunities for skilled workers returning to India.
• Enhance domestic demand: Strengthen India's technology ecosystem, startups, digital infrastructure and domestic innovation so that skilled workers have broader employment opportunities within the country.

Additional Concepts

• Brain drain and brain gain: Restrictions on overseas mobility may encourage skilled workers to return to India; effective policies can convert this into a brain-gain opportunity through domestic research and innovation.
• Global Capability Centres (GCCs): Offshore units of multinational companies that undertake activities such as software development, research, analytics, finance and strategic business operations.
• Remittances: Cross-border transfers by migrants to their home countries, supporting household consumption, foreign-exchange inflows and external-sector stability.
• Demographic dividend: India can benefit from its working-age population only if education, skills and employment generation remain aligned with changing global labour-market requirements.