Context: COP31 will be held in Antalya, Türkiye, in November 2026, with Türkiye hosting the conference and Australia overseeing the negotiations process.
- Türkiye’s Environment Minister Murat Kurum will serve as COP31 President, while Australia’s Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen will serve as Vice-President.
- The unusual Türkiye–Australia co-presidency arrangement reflects a compromise after both countries sought to host COP31.
- A pre-COP meeting in Fiji (October 5–8) will discuss preparations and negotiating priorities, particularly with Pacific Island countries and Australia.
The Core Issue: Fossil-Fuel Transition
- Both Australia and Türkiye remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels: coal, gas and oil account for around 90% of Australia’s and 80% of Türkiye’s energy needs.
- Australia is also the world’s third-largest fossil-fuel exporter, after Russia and the U.S.
- Australia recently faced criticism from climate groups for approving the expansion of a coal mine, highlighting the tension between domestic fossil-fuel interests and climate commitments.
- Despite this background, the COP31 priority agenda does not explicitly mention transitioning away from fossil fuels.
COP31 Priority: Electrification
- The principal COP31 goal is to increase electrification of industry and transport, raising electricity’s share of final energy demand from just over 20% currently to 35% by 2035.
- Australia is pursuing industrial decarbonisation, including the use of hybrid and electric heavy machinery in sectors such as iron-ore mining.
- Electric vehicles (EVs) are gaining importance in Australia, with EV sales reportedly surpassing petrol-car sales for the first time.
- Türkiye has prioritised recycling, zero waste and a circular economy, partly to reduce methane emissions.
- Türkiye’s domestic EV brand Togg is also being promoted as part of the country’s transition in the automobile sector.
Oceans and Seas
- Oceans and Seas are another COP31 priority.
- Türkiye organised a Blue Dialogue on September 10–11, focusing on protection of marine resources.
- The emphasis reflects the growing connection between climate change, marine ecosystems and ocean protection.
Fossil-Fuel Roadmap: COP30 to COP31
- At COP30 in Belém, Brazil, the European Union proposed a “fossil fuel roadmap” to support the global transition away from fossil fuels.
- Although several countries supported the proposal, observers argued that the debate also diverted attention from developing countries’ demand for greater adaptation finance.
- India did not oppose the roadmap but stressed that it must respect Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) and should not impose identical energy-transition pathways on all countries.
- Outside the UNFCCC negotiations, the first conference on “Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels” was held in Santa Marta, Colombia, in April 2026, co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands.
- The second such conference is scheduled for 2027, to be co-hosted by Tuvalu and Ireland.
Climate Finance and Loss & Damage
- Despite their importance, loss and damage financing and the broader issue of climate finance are not listed among COP31’s stated priority topics.
- The severe floods in Nepal on August 26 are expected to strengthen demands for greater mitigation action and attention to loss and damage financing.
- Türkiye’s COP31 Presidency has stated that it intends to create space for countries to discuss the fossil-fuel transition and seek consensus rather than impose a predetermined position.
- Türkiye has identified electrification of buildings, transport and industry, alongside expansion of renewable energy, as a key pathway for reducing emissions.
- On climate finance, Türkiye has called for closing the climate finance gap, fulfilling previous financial commitments and developing new mechanisms such as the “Climate Implementation Bridge”.
UPSC Concept: Loss and Damage
- Loss and damage refers to climate-related impacts that occur when adaptation is insufficient or limits are exceeded, including economic and non-economic losses.
- It is particularly significant for vulnerable developing countries facing severe climate impacts despite having contributed relatively little to historical greenhouse-gas emissions.
- The issue remains closely linked to the broader debate over climate finance, equity and CBDR.
Role of Countries in COP Agenda-Setting
- Countries participating in COP negotiations can propose new agenda items for consideration.
- At COP30, the European Union introduced the fossil-fuel roadmap into the formal agenda at a late stage.
- Therefore, the absence of fossil-fuel transition and loss-and-damage financing from the initial COP31 priorities does not necessarily prevent their consideration during negotiations.
- The key uncertainty is whether countries will formally propose these issues and how the Australia–Türkiye leadership will manage negotiations involving fossil-fuel transition and climate finance.
