Super El Niño and India: Heat-Related Mortality [Prelims Bits]

25 Sep 2026

Tags: Geography   Physical Geography   Climatology

Source: The Hindu

Context: A Super El Niño in 2026 is associated with unusually high temperatures and potential heat-related mortality globally, including India.

  • El Niño: Periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean waters, altering global atmospheric circulation, rainfall and temperature patterns.
  • Super El Niño: Informal term for an exceptionally strong El Niño; eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures were reported over 3°C above normal.
  • India: Climate Impact Lab estimates 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in September 2026–February 2027, compared with average conditions during 1996–2025.
  • Monsoon: India’s southwest monsoon recorded a 15% rainfall deficit up to September 22, 2026, with larger deficits in southern and eastern regions.
  • Power sector: Hotter conditions have increased electricity demand; nearly 40% of coal-fired power plants reportedly had critically low fuel stocks.
  • Climate-change link: The report characterises the event as a possible indication of temperatures projected under future climate change, highlighting the importance of adaptation and heat-risk preparedness.
  • Additional Prelims fact: El Niño is associated with weakening/alteration of the Indian southwest monsoon, though its actual impact varies by event and other climatic factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole.

Prelims Question

Q1. With reference to El Niño and its possible implications for India, consider the following statements:

  1. El Niño refers primarily to periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, accompanied by changes in atmospheric circulation.
  2. A strong El Niño necessarily causes deficient rainfall across every part of India during the southwest monsoon.
  3. The Indian Ocean Dipole can modify the relationship between El Niño conditions and the Indian southwest monsoon.
  4. The term “Super El Niño” is used for an exceptionally strong El Niño event and is not a separate formally defined phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Which of the statements given above are correct?

(a) Only one
(b) Only two
(c) Only three
(d) All four

Answer: (c)

Explanation:

  • Statement 1 is correct: El Niño involves anomalous warming of the central/eastern tropical Pacific and associated atmospheric changes.
  • Statement 2 is incorrect: El Niño generally tends to weaken the Indian monsoon, but its impact is not uniform or deterministic across India.
  • Statement 3 is correct: The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can influence and sometimes modify the effects of El Niño on Indian monsoon rainfall.
  • Statement 4 is correct: “Super El Niño” is an informal description of an exceptionally strong event rather than a separate officially recognised ENSO phase.