Context: The 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi provided an opportunity for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping to hold a bilateral meeting amid a gradual thaw in India-China relations.
- Xi Jinping’s participation was significant as he had skipped the 2023 G20 Summit hosted by India.
- The article argues that while India viewed the engagement partly through the lens of economic interests and strategic autonomy, China also used it to send signals to the United States (US).
Strategic Context of the India-China Thaw
- For India, improving ties with China can support economic interests while demonstrating that India has relationships beyond the US and its allies.
- India seeks to balance its growing strategic partnership with the US with its participation in BRICS and other non-Western multilateral platforms.
- For China, closer engagement with India demonstrates that Beijing can maintain relationships with major countries despite US-China strategic competition.
- Thus, the India-China thaw has implications beyond bilateral relations and is linked to the broader contest over the international order.
Four Key Takeaways from the Modi-Xi Statements
1. Different Diplomatic Focus
- The Chinese statement was substantially longer than the Indian statement and devoted considerable attention to BRICS, the Global South, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and G20.
- The Indian statement had little substantive reference to BRICS and focused more strongly on bilateral concerns.
- This reflects different diplomatic priorities: India sought to balance strategic autonomy with stable US relations, while China used BRICS and the Global South more explicitly to project its broader geopolitical message.
2. Different Priorities on Border Issues
- India’s statement gave considerable emphasis to peace and tranquillity in border areas and adherence to existing agreements and understandings.
- The Chinese statement also supported maintaining border peace but gave greater space to people-to-people exchanges and multilateral cooperation.
- This difference reflects India’s continuing insistence that border stability is central to normalising bilateral relations.
From Disengagement to Border Management
- The two sides have proposed expert-level discussions on an “Early and Substantial Harvest” concerning boundary delimitation and border management.
- However, the precise meaning of this formulation and the terms of reference of the proposed expert groups remained unclear.
- The two countries also proposed discussions on hydrological data sharing and renewal of relevant Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs).
- The article notes that such issues have already been under discussion between the two countries’ Special Representatives (SRs) for several years.
- Therefore, the latest understandings largely represent commitments to further negotiations rather than completed settlements.
3. China’s Expectations from India
- China described India and China as “partners rather than adversaries” and as each other’s “development opportunities rather than a threat.”
- Beijing called for eliminating “interference” and promoting open and inclusive multilateral cooperation.
- China also emphasised a “dual-track” approach, under which bilateral cooperation in areas such as economic and people-to-people relations should proceed alongside management of the border issue.
- This approach is significant because India has increasingly sought to separate border management from cooperation in other areas following the completion of troop disengagement in 2024.
The Ambiguity of “Interference”
- The Chinese statement does not clearly define what constitutes “interference”, leaving the term open to interpretation in future diplomatic exchanges.
- The statement also called for improving the “public opinion base” of bilateral relations.
- The article interprets this as potentially implying pressure on Indian criticism of Chinese policies, although this interpretation is contested and should be distinguished from the wording of the statement itself.
- China also specifically referred to India’s policies and positions concerning Taiwan and Tibet, issues that were absent from India’s statement.
4. China’s Conditional Approach to the Thaw
- China described the idea of India and China being partners rather than adversaries as a strategic assessment based on their stage of development and the international environment.
- This qualification suggests that Beijing views the present improvement in relations as dependent on prevailing domestic and international circumstances, rather than necessarily permanent.
- The article links China’s current preference for stability to its domestic economic challenges and preparations for the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC).
- At the same time, China can use platforms such as BRICS to strengthen ties with India while maintaining strategic distance between India and the US.
India-China Relations: Key Areas of Convergence and Divergence
Areas of Convergence
- Maintaining peace and tranquillity along the border.
- Expanding people-to-people exchanges.
- Cooperation in multilateral forums such as BRICS, SCO and G20.
- Exploring greater economic and developmental cooperation.
Areas of Divergence
- Boundary dispute and Line of Actual Control (LAC) management.
- India’s strategic partnerships with the US and Indo-Pacific countries.
- China’s concerns regarding India’s positions on Taiwan and Tibet.
- Differences over the nature and direction of the multipolar international order.
- Continuing trust deficit following military tensions along the LAC.
Strategic Autonomy and India
- India’s participation in BRICS alongside its growing partnership with the US reflects its policy of strategic autonomy.
- Strategic autonomy seeks to preserve India’s ability to independently determine its foreign-policy choices rather than aligning completely with any single power bloc.
- India’s approach allows simultaneous engagement with China, the US, Russia, Europe, the Global South and Indo-Pacific partners, depending on the issue.
Why BRICS Matters in India-China-US Relations
- BRICS provides China with a platform to promote greater representation of developing countries in global governance.
- India views BRICS as an important instrument for multipolarity and Global South cooperation, while simultaneously deepening relations with Western countries.
- Consequently, BRICS represents both an area of India-China cooperation and a platform for geopolitical competition.
- China’s emphasis on BRICS during the Modi-Xi engagement indicates that bilateral diplomacy is increasingly connected to the larger restructuring of global power relations.
Challenges to Sustaining the Thaw
- Unresolved boundary dispute: Disengagement does not amount to final settlement of the boundary question.
- Trust deficit: Military tensions since 2020 continue to influence perceptions of China in India.
- Strategic competition: India-US cooperation and China’s regional ambitions can create friction.
- Economic concerns: Trade imbalance and concerns regarding strategic dependencies remain significant.
- Issue-linkages: Disagreements over Taiwan, Tibet and other geopolitical questions can spill into bilateral relations.
- Conditional diplomacy: The durability of the current thaw may depend on changing domestic and international circumstances.
Way Forward
- Ensure verifiable implementation of border agreements and maintain peace along the LAC.
- Continue negotiations on border management and eventual boundary delimitation through established diplomatic mechanisms.
- Strengthen economic and people-to-people engagement while addressing concerns related to trade and strategic dependencies.
- Use BRICS, SCO and G20 to expand areas of cooperation without allowing multilateral convergence to obscure bilateral differences.
- Preserve India’s strategic autonomy by maintaining constructive relations with multiple major powers.
- Focus on institutionalised dialogue and concrete implementation rather than relying solely on summit-level diplomatic assurances.
Conclusion: The India-China thaw reflects a tactical convergence shaped by border stability, economic interests and wider geopolitical competition. Its durability will depend on translating diplomatic commitments into sustained stability while India preserves its strategic autonomy.
