Food Prices, El Niño & Fertiliser Sales [Prelims Bits]

15 Sep 2026

Tags: Prelims   Current events of national and international importance

Source: The Indian Express

  • Erratic 2026 southwest monsoon + strong El Niño + geopolitical tensions may reduce crop yields and push domestic and global food prices upward.
  • Fertiliser sales have declined despite near-normal Kharif acreage, signalling possible stress in agricultural input use.

2026 Southwest Monsoon

  • June: No Low-Pressure System (LPS); rainfall 38% below LPA.
  • July: 4 LPSs; rainfall 1% above LPA.
  • August: 6 LPSs, but rainfall 16.3% below LPA.
  • Overall till September 14: rainfall 14.7% below LPA; 24 of 36 meteorological subdivisions had >10% deficiency.
  • LPS: develops when warm, moist air rises, cools and condenses; important rain-bearing systems during monsoon.
  • El Niño weakens easterly trade winds, reducing moisture transport towards India.

Agricultural Impact

  • Kharif sowing 2026: 1,096.5 lakh hectares — only 1.4% below 2025.
  • However, uneven rainfall distribution and prolonged dry spells may reduce yield and harvested output despite near-normal acreage.
  • Higher wholesale prices: maize, arhar (pigeon pea), soybean indicate bullish crop-price expectations.
  • United States Department of Agriculture forecasts India's rice production at 147 MT and maize at 50 MT, below previous records.

El Niño

  • El Niño: abnormal warming of the central/eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, disrupting global atmospheric circulation.
  • Current SST anomaly off Ecuador–Peru: ~+1.8°C.
  • Projected very strong El Niño: >+2°C SST anomaly.
  • Effects relevant to India: weaker monsoon + higher temperatures + potentially warmer/shorter winter.
  • Possible impact on upcoming Rabi crops: wheat, mustard, chickpea, lentil, peas, potato, onion, garlic, cumin, fennel and coriander.

Fertiliser Sales: Warning Signal

  • April–July 2026 sales fell compared with 2025 for:
    • Urea: 124.2 → 116 lakh tonnes
    • DAP: 25.6 → 24.4 lakh tonnes
    • MOP: 6.9 → 5.9 lakh tonnes
    • Complex fertilisers: 50 → 43 lakh tonnes
  • SSP: marginally increased, 20 → 20.2 lakh tonnes.
  • Despite increased urea imports, urea sales declined 6.6%.

Global Food Prices

  • FAO Food Price Index: 133.3 points in August; highest since November 2022.
  • Base period: 2014–16 = 100.
  • All-time high: 160.2 points (March 2022).
  • Vegetable-oil prices are currently a major source of inflationary pressure.
  • Risks ahead: declining global stocks + disrupted trade logistics + geopolitical conflicts + strengthening El Niño.
  • FAO Food Price Index tracks international prices of a basket of major food commodities, including cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat and sugar.
  • El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.

Prelims Question

Q1. With reference to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian monsoon and agricultural production, consider the following statements:

  1. El Niño is associated with anomalous warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  2. A near-normal area under Kharif cultivation necessarily indicates near-normal agricultural output.
  3. Prolonged dry spells and uneven spatial distribution of rainfall can adversely affect crop yields even when seasonal rainfall or sowing area appears relatively normal.
  4. El Niño can influence Rabi agriculture in India through changes in temperature and winter conditions, in addition to its implications for the southwest monsoon.

Which of the statements given above are correct?

(a) 1 and 3 only
(b) 1, 3 and 4 only
(c) 2 and 4 only
(d) 1, 2, 3 and 4

Answer: (b) 1, 3 and 4 only

Explanation:

  • Statement 4 1 is correct: El Niño involves abnormal warming of the central/eastern equatorial Pacific.
  • Statement 4 2 is incorrect: Sown area does not directly determine final output; rainfall distribution, dry spells and crop conditions also affect yield and harvested production.
  • Statement 4 3 is correct: Temporal and spatial rainfall variability can reduce yields despite relatively normal aggregate acreage.
  • Statement 4 4 is correct: El Niño may contribute to higher temperatures and warmer/shorter winters, potentially affecting crops such as wheat, mustard and chickpea.